The Pour
Drinkers with an investment problem
Friday, August 14, 2026
Good morning, ScotchBrokers. The S&P just cleared 7,800 for the first time ever, which means somewhere out there a index fund manager is doing a small, dignified fist pump. Reddit is about to join the club too. Pour something with a little age on it — today's a good one.

Markets Bar

S&P 500
7,798.99 ▲0.65%
Nasdaq
26,803.03 ▲0.81%
Dow
53,839.99 ▲0.13%
10-Year Yield
4.68%
Bitcoin
$62,702 ▼1.4%
Crude Oil (WTI)
$81.71 ▲0.6%

The S&P notched a fresh record close above 7,800 Thursday on cooler-than-expected inflation data — July PPI came in flat, CPI eased to 3.4% annually — pushing rate-hike odds for September down toward 40%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq are pacing for a third straight winning week, their best streak since May.

Geopolitics

Russia / Ukraine

Moscow says it's open to a new round of peace talks, but with a catch — Russian officials want to discuss only the newest US proposals, not a broader reopening of prior terms. Ukraine, meanwhile, is warning it has effectively run out of Patriot interceptors heading into a winter Russia has historically used to target energy infrastructure. Translation: the diplomacy is moving, the air defense math isn't.

North Korea / Corporate America

The FBI says North Korea has quietly built a shadow workforce inside U.S. companies — operatives using stolen identities and AI tools to land remote jobs and funnel salaries back to Pyongyang. Thousands are reportedly active. If your next contractor "ghosts" every video call, there's now a geopolitical explanation for that.

Global Trade

The broader trend line: the US, EU, and China keep "derisking" from each other, with Europe's exports to China shrinking while its trade with the US grows on the back of pharma and metals shipments ahead of expected tariff changes. Slow-moving, but it's reshaping who supplies whom for the next decade.

Companies to Watch

CRWV — CoreWeave

Shares jumped 23% on Q2 earnings, with backlog rocketing from $104B to $129B in six weeks — roughly $25B of new contracted demand added since the print. Contracted power capacity climbed to 4.2 gigawatts. Still burning cash, still carrying real leverage, but the demand signal is hard to argue with.

RDDT — Reddit

Joining the S&P 500 before the open on August 18, replacing AvalonBay. Shares popped 11%+ on the news alone — a reminder that index inclusion can move a stock more in an afternoon than a quarter of earnings.

AMAT — Applied Materials

Q3 beat and raised Q4 guidance on AI-driven chipmaking demand, capping a roughly 190% one-year run for the stock heading into the print.

SMCI — Super Micro

Surged 19% after guiding fiscal 2027 revenue above Wall Street expectations — a sharp turn in sentiment for a name that's had a rocky year.

Common thread across all four: AI infrastructure demand is still the market's favorite story, and earnings season has mostly rewarded companies that can prove the backlog is real.

Real Estate & Rates

The 10-year Treasury is holding near 4.68%, and the 30-year fixed mortgage is sitting around 6.69–6.8% — the highest levels of 2026 so far. Softer July inflation data gave rates a brief reprieve mid-week, but elevated deficits and sticky long-term yields are keeping borrowing costs stubborn. For anyone underwriting a refi or a new acquisition in the Panhandle right now, don't bank on a meaningful pullback before year-end — plan the spreadsheet at today's rate, not a hoped-for one.

"A good whisky rewards patience. So does a good position — the trick is knowing which one you're actually holding." — The Pour